Bernie Sanders and Superdelegate Math

Bernie's plan to win Superdelegates comes in a total of 3 parts:

1. Convince undecided superdelegates to support Bernie
2. Convince Clinton-supporting superdelegates of states where Bernie won the majority to support Bernie
3. Convince superdelegates who pledged their vote to Clinton at the very beginning of the primary season when a rival to Clinton was not conceivable to consider supporting Bernie

Would any of this help? Could Bernie win the DNC convention? Let's look at the math.

Currently, AP is reporting that Clinton has 520 delegates and Bernie has 39. It's worth noting that these are estimates and different sources are reporting different numbers. For math purposes, I'm using Wikipedia solely because they provide a break down of the delegates than can be counted and manipulated. They are reporting Hillary at 498 and Bernie at 41.

If Bernie is able to persuade all undecided superdelegates (and one O'Malley superdelegate) to his side, he would gain 176 votes. In states where he won the majority vote, there are 49 total superdelegates that have pledged their vote to Clinton. If Bernie were to win the remaining states in the primary, there are currently 89 pledged superdelegates in those states pledged to Clinton the he would need to convince to come to his side.

Adding all of this up and subtracting pledged superdelegates from Clinton, would make the final superdelegate tally (Bernie +176+49+89, Clinton -49-89):

Clinton 360

Bernie 355

If we go with the AP report, the scores would be Hillary 382, Bernie 353

(or slightly lower for Bernie given 20 delegates unaccounted for in the AP numbers).

The math seems unlikely. After all, how could Bernie convince ALL the superdelegates he needs? Even with the numbers so close, it still seems the convention would go to Hillary. How could Bernie possibly win? This is where part 3 comes in.

Bernie has a higher favorable rating than Hillary, he polls better than her against the Republican candidates, and Bernie is bringing out the youth and independent vote - huge voter bases that can make a difference in the general election.

Bernie Sanders is all around a stronger democratic candidate than Hillary for the general election. Winning the superdelegates hinges on how many of them can acknowledge this fact. Winning the remaining primary states would also be a good push for Bernie in convincing superdelegates that he can go the distance. But in order to win votes Bernie needs our help, now more than ever.

What can I do?

Volunteer for Bernie.

Phone bank for Bernie.

Donate to Bernie.

Write your superdelegates! 

When writing superdelegates, be respectful! It should go without saying that threats, aggression, name calling, and the like only serve to hurt our cause. If you can't be respectful, ask a friend who can be to help you in writing your communication or use this sample letter

The path to victory is narrow, but we can win if we're determined to fight.

Write Your Superdelegates!

Bernie's path to the White House relies on winning as many delegates and superdelegates as possible. For the delegates, we keep doing what we've been doing: canvas, phone bank, and volunteer. For superdelegates, we need to write to them and let them know why they should support Bernie over Hillary.

There's been some really bad communication between Superdelegates and Bernie supporters. We cannot argue our point with threats, name calling, or angry messages. This only serves to hurt our cause. If you feel you cannot be civil, leave the communicating for someone else. Otherwise, you can find a list of delegates and their contact information here. Below is a sample letter you can use:

Dear [superdelegate name],

I am a citizen of (your state), and I am writing to urge you to consider supporting Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Nomination.

It may be that you personally prefer Hillary Clinton's policies over Bernie Sanders's. It may also be that you are drawn to the idea of a woman president. I ask instead that you consider the general election in November and which candidate would perform best for the Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton mainly appeals to loyal Democrats. Bernie Sanders, however, appeals to Democrats, Independents, Republicans, young voters, and voters who have long abstained from participating in our political process. Bernie appeals to a much wider base of voters, a third of which will not back Hillary but would be a huge advantage to the Democratic Party during the general election.

Bernie Sanders is more well liked than Hillary Clinton. A mid-April Gallup poll found Bernie had a net favorable rating of +52 among Democrats. While Bernie's favorable rating has climbed since last July, Hillary's has dropped to +36. Her rating could continue to fall and prove to be a detriment in the general election, where voters who dislike both Hillary and the Republican candidate could choose to stay home.

Bernie Sanders also polls better than Hillary against Trump and Cruz. Against Trump, Real Clear Politics has Hillary winning by a polling average of 8.5 points, whereas Bernie wins by 15.2 points. With Cruz, Hillary wins by 3 points and Bernie wins by 12. Bernie Sanders is clearly the better candidate of choice to propel the Democratic Party to victory.

Bernie Sanders has faced tremendous odds during the primaries. The major media networks will not cover him. Issues of voter suppression across the primaries have cost him in delegates. Yet, he has come impressively far and has proven himself to be a real contender against Hillary Clinton. If this is what he can do with forces acting against him, think of how much farther he could go with the Democratic Party's backing.

For the good of the Party, I urge you to consider voting for Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Nomination.

Sincerely,

[your first and last name]