Bernie Sanders and Superdelegate Math

Bernie's plan to win Superdelegates comes in a total of 3 parts:

1. Convince undecided superdelegates to support Bernie
2. Convince Clinton-supporting superdelegates of states where Bernie won the majority to support Bernie
3. Convince superdelegates who pledged their vote to Clinton at the very beginning of the primary season when a rival to Clinton was not conceivable to consider supporting Bernie

Would any of this help? Could Bernie win the DNC convention? Let's look at the math.

Currently, AP is reporting that Clinton has 520 delegates and Bernie has 39. It's worth noting that these are estimates and different sources are reporting different numbers. For math purposes, I'm using Wikipedia solely because they provide a break down of the delegates than can be counted and manipulated. They are reporting Hillary at 498 and Bernie at 41.

If Bernie is able to persuade all undecided superdelegates (and one O'Malley superdelegate) to his side, he would gain 176 votes. In states where he won the majority vote, there are 49 total superdelegates that have pledged their vote to Clinton. If Bernie were to win the remaining states in the primary, there are currently 89 pledged superdelegates in those states pledged to Clinton the he would need to convince to come to his side.

Adding all of this up and subtracting pledged superdelegates from Clinton, would make the final superdelegate tally (Bernie +176+49+89, Clinton -49-89):

Clinton 360

Bernie 355

If we go with the AP report, the scores would be Hillary 382, Bernie 353

(or slightly lower for Bernie given 20 delegates unaccounted for in the AP numbers).

The math seems unlikely. After all, how could Bernie convince ALL the superdelegates he needs? Even with the numbers so close, it still seems the convention would go to Hillary. How could Bernie possibly win? This is where part 3 comes in.

Bernie has a higher favorable rating than Hillary, he polls better than her against the Republican candidates, and Bernie is bringing out the youth and independent vote - huge voter bases that can make a difference in the general election.

Bernie Sanders is all around a stronger democratic candidate than Hillary for the general election. Winning the superdelegates hinges on how many of them can acknowledge this fact. Winning the remaining primary states would also be a good push for Bernie in convincing superdelegates that he can go the distance. But in order to win votes Bernie needs our help, now more than ever.

What can I do?

Volunteer for Bernie.

Phone bank for Bernie.

Donate to Bernie.

Write your superdelegates! 

When writing superdelegates, be respectful! It should go without saying that threats, aggression, name calling, and the like only serve to hurt our cause. If you can't be respectful, ask a friend who can be to help you in writing your communication or use this sample letter

The path to victory is narrow, but we can win if we're determined to fight.

Write Your Superdelegates!

Bernie's path to the White House relies on winning as many delegates and superdelegates as possible. For the delegates, we keep doing what we've been doing: canvas, phone bank, and volunteer. For superdelegates, we need to write to them and let them know why they should support Bernie over Hillary.

There's been some really bad communication between Superdelegates and Bernie supporters. We cannot argue our point with threats, name calling, or angry messages. This only serves to hurt our cause. If you feel you cannot be civil, leave the communicating for someone else. Otherwise, you can find a list of delegates and their contact information here. Below is a sample letter you can use:

Dear [superdelegate name],

I am a citizen of (your state), and I am writing to urge you to consider supporting Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Nomination.

It may be that you personally prefer Hillary Clinton's policies over Bernie Sanders's. It may also be that you are drawn to the idea of a woman president. I ask instead that you consider the general election in November and which candidate would perform best for the Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton mainly appeals to loyal Democrats. Bernie Sanders, however, appeals to Democrats, Independents, Republicans, young voters, and voters who have long abstained from participating in our political process. Bernie appeals to a much wider base of voters, a third of which will not back Hillary but would be a huge advantage to the Democratic Party during the general election.

Bernie Sanders is more well liked than Hillary Clinton. A mid-April Gallup poll found Bernie had a net favorable rating of +52 among Democrats. While Bernie's favorable rating has climbed since last July, Hillary's has dropped to +36. Her rating could continue to fall and prove to be a detriment in the general election, where voters who dislike both Hillary and the Republican candidate could choose to stay home.

Bernie Sanders also polls better than Hillary against Trump and Cruz. Against Trump, Real Clear Politics has Hillary winning by a polling average of 8.5 points, whereas Bernie wins by 15.2 points. With Cruz, Hillary wins by 3 points and Bernie wins by 12. Bernie Sanders is clearly the better candidate of choice to propel the Democratic Party to victory.

Bernie Sanders has faced tremendous odds during the primaries. The major media networks will not cover him. Issues of voter suppression across the primaries have cost him in delegates. Yet, he has come impressively far and has proven himself to be a real contender against Hillary Clinton. If this is what he can do with forces acting against him, think of how much farther he could go with the Democratic Party's backing.

For the good of the Party, I urge you to consider voting for Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Nomination.

Sincerely,

[your first and last name]

Bernie Supporters, Now is Not Time to Jump Ship

Bernie's defeat during last night's Super Tuesday was disheartening to say the least. But just because the majority is paying attention to the sharks and ship captain, doesn't mean you give up on the guy pointing out the disaster we're heading into.

Months ago, before any #StillSanders hashtag appeared, I was asked in an anonymous Tumblr message if I would change my blog name and start following another presidential candidate if Bernie didn't win the nomination.

The question seemed absurd to me then. I didn't start a blog and several social media channels so I could flip flop between lackluster political candidates. I don't spend hours of my day every day reading Bernie, sharing Bernie, discussing Bernie just to give up once he secured the white house. Win or lose, Bernie champions a message I care about, and as long as that message is carried, I will kept fighting for it.

I thought others who proclaimed they "feel the bern" were the same as I, that they too had latched on to the message and were in it for the long haul. Now, with Bernie's chances for the nomination growing slimmer, I was disappointed to see messages of those I once trusted urging others to vote for Hillary to save the country from the impending Trump nomination.

And if you're one of those people who championed Bernie but are now limping away and suggesting we all do the same, then I have to ask you, what were you fighting for in the first place? Because the issues haven't changed, and if you ever really cared about them, Bernie is still the best choice for president. Do you not owe it to yourself and this country to continue fighting for Bernie?

Running scared to vote for the lesser evil is what establishment politics wants you to do. How many presidential elections have you heard the saying "But I can't vote for him because he can't win?" We, a country built by revolutionists, have let ourselves believe we have no power. Many of us are sick and tired of our political system, but we've bought into the fallacy of the throwaway vote. The reality is if we only had the courage to band together, we could truly change something.

There is, even now a path to the white house. Bernie does extremely well with Independents and young people, two groups that have felt excluded by and haven't participated in our political process. Bernie is the only candidate with a net favorability rating among voters and polls better than Hillary against the Republican candidates. While Hillary gains support mostly among democrats, Bernie appeals to a wide group voters, Democrats and Republicans alike. Bernie's support can be expected to grow after the primary as he gains more exposure among the American people. Hillary's support may not as her numbers have stayed around the same since the primary started. 

Bernie plans to fight all the way to the convention where it all comes down to super delegates. If Bernie can pull off an impressive delegate count to rival Clinton, and the delegates recognize Bernie has the support and the momentum to win the general election in a way that surpasses Clinton's chances, they should vote for him.

Of course, there's always the chance Bernie doesn't win. But what really changes then? Do you honestly believe our country is best served by voting for another candidate? We backed Bernie because we believed in what he represented. None of that changes if he doesn't win the nomination.

What about the fossil fuels destroying our planet? What about people who still can't afford life saving healthcare? What about preventing Wall Street from crashing our economy again? Our crumbling education system? The disappearing middle class? Our bought politicians? Our obsession with continuous warfare? Our terrible mass incarceration and criminal justice issues? No one said the political revolution was going to be easy. And I for one fail to see how turning in my values and beliefs for an establishment candidate is going to be helpful.

Our country cannot continue to survive like this, and Hillary is not going to fix it. Yes, Trump is scary, but that's no reason to buy into the establishment ploy and drag our country though 8 more years of income inequality, corrupt politics, and no change. Hillary is just as likely to destroy the country as Trump, she'll just do it quietly and behind closed doors.

Hillary has to earn our vote and has already demonstrated how little she cares about it. So what do we do? We get back to what we've been doing. We phone bank, canvas, and volunteer our heart out. We show up and vote and drag our friends and family out with us. We make Hillary fight for every last delegate until the convention.

And what if Bernie doesn't get the Democratic nomination? Then we see if a third party candidacy is an option, and if it is we fight our heart out for that. And if not, we continue to fight for Bernie and his beliefs and vote berniecrats into office one county, city, state at a time. We change Congress. We get involved in our political process, attend protests, and demand that our representatives work for us. We do not give up! And we do not give in!

Bernie has been fighting for us for over 40 years, even when no one was around to take him seriously. Now is not the time to jump ship, or perhaps the perfect time if you were never serious to be begin with. We are the political revolution, and it can only go as far as you decide to carry it. Sign the Bernie or Bust pledge to write in Bernie's name or vote Green in the general election. Tell the establish we're not playing their game anymore.

When to Register and Vote for Bernie in the Primaries

VoteforBernie.org is a fantastic resource for information on when to vote and register for voting in your state. If you visit the website, a pop up will even appear where you can sign up to receive email reminders for deadlines in your state. (If for some reason it doesn't pop up, you can find the sign up on the webpage just before the states are listed)

But, one of the things I've been looking for and haven't been able to find is a list of registration and voting deadlines by date, while VoteforBernie,org lists these deadlines by state. Their method is great for people going to their site to look up voting information for their state, but it's not so useful for people wondering what deadlines are coming up so we can get the news out on social media.

So, taking the information on VoteforBernie.org, I have reorganized voter registration deadlines and primary dates in order so everyone can see what is coming up. Note that some states have party affiliation deadlines, which are also listed. Check your state for more information.

Special Note - 17 Year Old Voters

In some states, if you are 17 but will be 18 by the presidential election Nov 8th 2016, you can vote in the primaries. Check your state for more information.

Deadlines

Oct 2015
9 - New York party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as Democrat)
30 - New Hampshire party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as undeclared or Democrat)

December 2015
31 - Kentucky party affiliation deadline

January
4 - Colorado voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Connecticut party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as Democrat)
26 - Rhode Island party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as undeclared or Democrat)
27 - South Carolina voter registration deadline
30 - New Hampshire voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)

February
1 - Arkansas voter registration deadline
1 - Georgia voter registration deadline
1 - Iowa caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
1 - Tennessee voter registration deadline
1 - Texas voter registration deadline
3 - Louisiana voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
5 - Mississippi voter registration deadline
5 - Oklahoma voter registration deadline  (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
8 - Michigan voter registration deadline
8 - Virginia voter registration deadline
9 - New Hampshire primary
10 - Massachusetts voter registration deadline (must register undeclared as Democrat)
12 - Alabama voter registration deadline
15 - Florida voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
16 - Illinois voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
16 - Ohio voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
17 - Missouri voter registration deadline
19 - Maine voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
19 - North Carolina voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
20 - Nevada caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
21 - Utah voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
22 - Arizona voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
24 - Vermont voter registration deadline
26 - Delaware party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as Democrat)
27 - South Carolina primary

March
1 - Alabama primary
1 - Arkansas primary
1 - Colorado caucus
1 - Georgia primary
1 - Massachusetts primary
1 - Minnesota primary and voter registration deadline
1 - Oklahoma primary
1 - Tennessee primary
1 - Texas primary
1 - Vermont primary
1 - Virginia primary
5 - Kansas caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
5 - Louisiana primary
5 - Nebraska caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
6 - Maine primary
8 - Michigan primary
8 - Mississippi primary
15 - Florida primary
15 - Illinois primary
15 - Missouri primary
15 - North Carolina primary
15 - Ohio primary
16 - Wisconsin voter registration deadline
22 - Arizona primary
22 - Idaho caucus and voter registration deadline
22 - Utah caucus
25 - New York voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
25 - Wyoming  voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Alaska caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Hawaii caucus and voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Rhode Island voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
28 - Pennsylvania voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
28 - Washington caucus (no voter registration needed)

April
2 - Delaware voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
4 - Indiana voter registration deadline
5 - Maryland voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
5 - Wisconsin primary
9 - Wyoming caucus
13 - New Jersey party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as Democrat)
16 - Puerto Rico voter registration deadline
18 - Kentucky voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
19 - New York primary
19 - West Virginia voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)
21 - Connecticut voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Connecticut primary
26 - Delaware primary
26 - Maryland primary
26 - Oklahoma voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
26 - Pennsylvania primary
26 - Rhode Island primary

May
3 - Indiana primary
8 - Montana voter registration deadline
10 - New Mexico voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
10 - West Virginia primary
16 - Washington DC party affiliation deadline (must affiliate as Democrat)
17 - Kentucky primary
17 - New Jersey voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
17 - Oregon primary
23 - California voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
23 - Washington DC voter registration deadline (must register as Democrat)
23 - South Dakota voter registration deadline (must register as undeclared or Democrat)

June
5 - Puerto Rico primary
7 - California primary
7 - Montana primary
7 - New Jersey primary
7 - North Dakota caucus (no voter registration needed)
7 - South Dakota primary
10 - New Mexico primary
14 - Washington DC primary

I missed my state's party affiliation / voter registration deadline. Now What?

Some states offer same day registration if you miss the original deadline. Check your state. You may need to call your state or local voting office to make sure you can still change your party affiliation.

My state doesn't offer same day registration.

Some states offer grace period registration for citizens who missed original deadlines. You will need to call your state or local voting office to see if grace period registration is available.

My state doesn't have grace periods or same day registration. :(

Sadly, you won't be able to vote, but you can still make your voice heard and help Bernie win. Check out all the ways you can volunteer. Check local events to see if people are gathering in your area to support Bernie. Every little bit helps. Do whatever you feel able to do to.

How can I connect with others in my state who are voting for Bernie?

Always check with local events to see if any meet ups are happening in your area. Also, Grassroots for Bernie has put together Facebook events for every state's primary. Join up and share.

UPDATE 1/27/16: fixed Puerto Rico and South Carolina date errors

How to Caucus for Bernie Sanders

The way we choose presidential nominees in the US is a little confusing. First, votes are cast by state citizens, either through primaries or caucuses. The percentage of the vote determines the number of delegates each candidate receives. The delegates then go the national convention of each party to represent and vote for their candidate for the presidential nomination.

Most states vote through primaries where citizens go to designated polling areas and cast a vote. But some states hold caucuses. Voters must travel to their precinct meeting place and gather into groups to show support for their chosen candidate. Caucuses can take hours to complete as opposed to primaries, meaning that many voters don't show, which is why it's super important for Bernie Sanders supporters to show up to ensure he receives the most delegates possible. Visit this link to see what the Democratic caucusing process is like.

States that hold democratic caucuses in 20016 and their dates are as follows. These dates are subject to change, so make sure you double check if you want to caucus for Bernie! You must be a state resident and a registered voter to caucus for Bernie. Some states also require that you are a registered Democrat. You can check your state and registration deadlines here. Click the state links to find out where your local caucus will be meeting. You should also check your local area for caucus training if you're not sure what to expect. Additionally, you can check out this caucus tool.

February 1
Iowa

Bernie's campaign is currently reaching out to Iowa voters. Take the pledge to caucus and earn points toward a free Bernie T-shirt.

Iowa for Bernie has put out this caucus video.

February 20
Nevada 

March 1
Colorado
Minnesota

March 5
Kansas
Nebraska

March 6
Maine

March 22
Idaho - not yet available
Utah

March 26
Alaska
Hawaii - not yet available
Washington

April 9
Wyoming - not yet available

June 7
North Dakota - not yet available

UPDATE 1/11/16: Added paragraph links
UPDATE 1/13/16: Added caucus training link and caucus pledge
UPDATE 1/14/16: Added caucus tool
UPDATE 1/21/16: Iowa for Bernie video added